As I post the 21st December
2012 is about half over in Mexico where the Mayans lived, and I am confident
that the world will not end today as predicted by some, but have you ever
wondered what would happen to you, your family and friends if there were none
of today’s electronic forms of communication, no transport due to lack of fuel,
and no imports of food because of there being no transport? I have been doing a
fair bit of tractor work recently, as well as many hours shelling maize and
busting up olive stumps with a big hammer and steel wedges to reduce them to
firewood. None of these jobs are particularly mind taxing, so thoughts just
drift from one thing to another. Then I began thinking what I could do – with
some help, so my mind wandered along several tracks before coming up with a few
ideas of what I would like to do if that happened. Whilst it is only
imaginative, I feel it is something worthy of consideration because it
automatically led to thinking about what I currently produce myself, and what I
currently buy, then led to considering what more I could produce so that I
spend less. You can do the same.
I have not considered a sudden worldwide
catastrophe where almost everyone is killed and infrastructures destroyed.
There is no knowing what might or might not be available in that situation.
Instead, I decided to form an outline of a possible plan for if and when the
power goes off, there is no fossil fuel, and food is DIY. It is just a
hypothetical situation that I hope never happens, but having an idea of what
you might do cannot do any harm. To develop your own ideas on similar lines you
would need to be living in a rural area, which I expect most readers of this
will be, and, of course I am already part way there because of my lifestyle
over many years being based on living on low income, and this would really be
an enforced move further towards self-sufficiency.
The scenario includes a reasonably slow
move towards the position. I was not prompted to think about it by the end of
the world today predictions, but by reading an article about a TV show where
people are asked to give details of their preparedness for an unforeseen event,
and an internet forum thread along the same lines – both referring to the USA.
It seems most people would stockpile and in fact some already have bunkers and
fall-out shelters fully equipped with living accommodation, and food and water
for several years. The supplies will run out at some time, even if the people
survive to use them all and then they have to rely on another source of food –
or die of starvation. Others are stockpiling food in a remote location, and,
very frequently, excessive quantities of guns and ammunition with the attitude
that they will shoot anybody who attacks them. Obviously they are expecting to
be attacked – and why not? If so many people are relying on guns then they will
be used. The trouble with that is that John Wayne and a couple of friends
seeing off a large band of gunslingers in a film is a lot different to what
would happen in real life. The enemy just needs enough firepower that can be
used at a distance, especially against those (and there are many) who think
they will survive best on their own. Everybody needs to sleep and a group can
easily deprive an individual of sleep.
So, I decided that the US is not for me.
Gun ownership in Portugal is fairly common, but not universal, and restricted
in numbers and type of weapon - a shotgun and a rifle probably being the
maximum owned by anybody who hunts (some will have more) but gangs of heavily
armed raiders are unlikely, and in fact I would expect many family groups
around about carrying on as their grandparents did. Such family groups have
always been able to survive, so why not in the future? Indeed it is extremely
common for the sons and daughters originally from the villages but who now live
in the towns to return “home” at the weekend and help out on the property. For
those not familiar with Portugal, almost all rural people live in a village that
is surrounded by individually owned blocks of land known as a quinta. There is
not often a house on quintas, but there is very frequently a building of some
description.
The envisaged scenario would mean only a
step-back in time, but with modern knowledge; and there are millions of people
in the world currently living with less than I would anticipate us having.
Portugal is a poor country, but relatively modernised, and many more countries
are much more badly off. Indeed there are many people in other countries that
would not notice any difference. Even here there are a very large number of
houses without water and electricity connected so their inhabitants would not
miss the power going off.
I decided I would prefer to stay where I am and
bring into a group some others, including Patrick and his wife who are only
five miles away and living on a similar property to us. They would continue to
live there. We already share farming equipment and work together on building
some items we need and cannot buy at an economic cost. Our house is an enormous
3-storey stone and concrete building that was formerly an olive mill and with
several separate entrance doors into various parts of the building. It would
easily split into several apartments. All doors are steel and the windows have
vertical steel bars so the building is relatively secure. It is wired and
plumbed throughout. Several other buildings totalling a few hundred square
metres are also wired and plumbed and with lockable steel doors, therefore also
reasonably secure. Some are set up for various livestock and others general
storage. Included in the ex-olive mill building are a bakehouse with domed
oven, a meat house, dairy and cheese store, olive storage bins, and a large
wine making room and cellar.
The land totals about 16 acres, all ploughable,
and has almost 500 olive trees, plus various fruit and nut trees and a
productive garden area next to the house. Patrick’s property has less olive
trees and not as many buildings but otherwise more or less the same. We
currently have adequate machinery and the ability to repair or make more
equipment.
The group comprises me, Patrick, my son and a friend
who was at school with him, plus our wives and whatever children the two
younger couples have when and if the worst does occur. We have, I believe, an
exceptional range of knowledge and skills amongst us as well as being of above
average intelligence if academic qualifications are an indication. This in
itself means that the group are able to learn. The “end of the known world” has
been discussed on a few occasions in a semi-jocular fashion and the ideas for
long-term survival are not mine alone.
At a professional level we have a medical
doctor, a veterinarian, two scientists – chemistry and physics, a teacher of
cookery and needlework, a computer and electronics whiz with very good
mechanics knowledge, and accountancy and administrative qualifications. Now
some might question the usefulness of the more academic qualifications, but the
knowledge of related science subjects makes the scientists useful in many of
the things we would need to tackle, and an ability to crunch numbers or
organise work sharing rotas, maintain supply records, crop rotation details
etc. are also required. I have the most farming and gardening experience but
everybody else is “countrified” with a combined experience in seven countries
around the world. Several languages are spoken. Everybody can ride a horse and
most have good shooting experience if the need arises, and wild meat is always
a useful extra. The four youngsters, not blood related to each other, are keen
hill climbers and walkers, capable of carrying a heavy pack for many miles.
Skills wise, we can keep our machinery going so
long as we have no major parts to replace. Animal power is within our reach if
all tractors fail. Many people around about now use donkeys or mules, and I
have seen cows used as draught animals. The olives can supply oil for fuel,
plus we have PV, generators, compressors, pumps, and the ability to make
methane, ethanol and grape spirit. It is legal in Portugal to distil your own
brandy, with stills and other equipment readily available, and absolutely
everybody in the country has grapes, so fuel (and drink) should not be a
problem. We would have birds and animals for eggs, meat, milk, cheese, butter
and clothing if required, with the ability to shear, kill, skin, tan, butcher,
design clothes, felt, spin, knit and sew whatever is required. I am sure
weaving would not be too big a problem either. We also have experience of making
mats for floor coverings. Cork for insulation is a further possibility,
although not something you decide to use and then be able to grow your own
supplies in a couple of decades. The cork oaks I have planted need about
another 30 years to their first harvest.
Cooking and food preservation skills are
excellent. The long growing season and reasonable temperatures, rarely above
35ºC and even more rarely below minus 5º, means we can grow most temperate
crops, and some short-season sub tropical ones. We already produce a large
range, and increasing that production would not be difficult. A river and farm
ponds are useful for fish and irrigation, with boreholes for household water,
although there are numerous potable springs every few miles along the highways.
I need to do more planning of the crops that would be most beneficial to grow
if we were totally reliant upon our own production. I have been increasing the
amount of home grown stock rations each year, and have begun work on a plan to
be self-sufficient in livestock feed because of recent problems of price rises
and lack of availability of some products, and I shall extend this plan to
cover our own needs too. I am drafting it in a form that can be altered to make
it a blog, and it will be the next one after this.
Much of Portugal is still a peasant based
economy so there are hundreds of thousands of people with the land, equipment
and skills to survive, plus a family to assist in the work. Consequently I do
not expect any large scale violence if modern ways cease and I believe the
country will simply get on with life as it always has. Like my wife and myself,
most of the older people have lived with limited money so they have had to fend
for themselves.
